Bitcoin 2024 Results & the Potential Impact of the Election on the Bitcoin Price
The Bitcoin 2024 conference ended last weekend. How was one of the main events of this summer, and what should market participants expect from the upcoming elections?
Key moments at the Bitcoin 2024 conference
The headliner of the conference was Donald Trump, who is actively using the cryptocurrency agenda as a tool to influence voters. The most striking statements were promises to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the first day of Trump's presidential term, create a Bitcoin reserve, and commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
The promise to fire Gensler drew a standing ovation from the audience, to which Trump responded that he had no idea how unpopular Gensler was.
The politician said he would not allow the sale of confiscated Bitcoins by the U.S. government. If Trump is elected, he will create a Bitcoin Reserve, which will not only receive once confiscated Bitcoins, but also those acquired in the future.
In his speech, Trump expressed support for stablecoins and the mining industry. He suggested that Bitcoin will eventually overtake gold. Interestingly, during Trump's speech, the price of Bitcoin fell to $66,000, but reached a five-week high by the end of the speech, despite the fact that the politician actively praised Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Congressman Wiley Nickel promoted a bipartisan approach to regulating cryptocurrencies. In addition, he mocked Trump's re-branding. Nickel emphasized that Trump had previously used all sorts of negative language towards cryptocurrencies. Trump did nothing for the industry during his 2017-2020 presidency, and Nickel is confident he won't do so now. However, host Jason Maier responded that Trump, like any other politician, can change his stance, which is what is happening now.
Senator Cynthia Lummis supported Trump's cryptocurrency stance and announced her plan to introduce a bill ordering the US Treasury to purchase 1 million Bitcoins within five years. In this way, she intends to combat the effects of the dollar's depreciation. According to Lummis, the government will hold Bitcoins for at least 20 years unless the tokens are sold to “reduce the debt.” She emphasized that this is an obvious, but still a big step.
Independent U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 event. Like Trump, he supported Bitcoin. His main statement was his desire to issue an executive order requiring the Department of Justice to transfer 204,000 BTC to the Federal Reserve for safekeeping as a “strategic asset.” In addition, he will mandate that the U.S. government buy 550 Bitcoins each day until the total capital reaches 4 million Bitcoins. Kennedy Jr. also wants to eliminate the taxation of transactions using the dollar and Bitcoin. Among other things, he has criticized the work of the Federal Reserve.
In general, both candidates actively used the cryptocurrency agenda as part of their election campaigns. Kamala Harris, who was rumored to be considering speaking at the conference, ultimately refused. Her cryptocurrency stance still remains unclear. On the one hand, sources close to her say that she is revising her stance to a softer one. On the other hand, her latest statement that Bitcoin is “criminal” underscores her intention to stick to the policies established back in the Biden administration.
How will the election affect Bitcoin pricing?
A Grayscale poll shows that American voters are now increasingly interested in Bitcoin. Some 47% of voters expect to include the cryptocurrency in their portfolio. 32% of voters are open to learning more about cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, poll respondents are divided on which party is more favorable to cryptocurrencies. 30% of voters each believe that the Democratic and Republican parties have a favorable view of cryptocurrencies.
The poll results show that Bitcoin will be influenced by the elections to be held in November 2024. Standard Chartered predicted that in August the Bitcoin price will test an all-time high, and closer to the elections in November will reach the $100,000 mark. And by the end of the year it will reach $150,000.
Doctor Profit predicts growth to the target of $86,000 in the run-up to the elections. According to the analyst, the asset is on the threshold of a cycle of active growth.
Some experts believe that the movement of the price of Bitcoin depends not on politics, but on the connection of the digital asset with the dollar. The probability that Trump will win the November elections has led to an increase in Bitcoin prices. And since Trump has been a strong advocate of the cryptocurrency sector in the US, many have assumed that Bitcoin has reacted positively in the run-up to the election. However, experts believe that Bitcoin's recent rise is due to market expectations that the U.S. dollar will begin to weaken against other currencies, as it historically does under Republican rule. Under the Republican administration of Donald Trump between 2017 and 2020, the dollar index declined by 7%. Accordingly, if markets continue to expect Trump to win the election, the dollar will weaken, which will have a positive impact on the Bitcoin price.
Meanwhile, QCP Capital argues that Bitcoin is poised for a major price breakout ahead of the election. Options traders are betting on Bitcoin's potential upside. The election will continue to drive volatility in the risk asset market. Analysts also noted that Biden's recent decision to drop out of the race in favor of Kamala Harris, sparked a negative reaction in the market. Bitcoin then sagged by $1,000. Experts predict that in the short term, Bitcoin will trade in the range of $61,000 to $67,000.
How will the victory of one candidate or another affect the crypto industry?
The crypto market could change significantly during the Trump administration. Despite his positive stance on cryptocurrencies, the markets could experience a lot of volatility during his presidency, as Trump is known for his harsh and unpredictable statements that often cause unrest among investors. Still, mining and cryptocurrency companies could thrive during Trump's administration. In June, he held a meeting with miners and emphasized that their activities could become a major force in the fight against the CBDC. Thus, we can expect a significant influx of investments in mining companies.
Cryptocurrency exchanges will have a better chance to IPO with Trump. Recent statements at Bitcoin 2024 that he will fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the first day of his presidency gave hope for this. It's likely that Trump will put someone more favorable to cryptocurrencies at the head of the commission. Nevertheless, international big players can only suffer under a Trump administration.
If voters overwhelmingly vote for Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate in the November election, the crypto industry could take a different path. Still, many analysts and market participants are in no hurry to make predictions. Ahead of the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Kamala Harris spoke negatively about Bitcoin, calling it “criminal.” And yet, there is no clear position on the regulation of the crypto market under the Harris administration.
Analysts are focused on her previous statements on financial regulation. Bitfinex believes that her focus on consumer protection will lead to scrutiny of the crypto market. Analysts have suggested that she will continue the Biden administration's cautious approach. Positive changes will occur, but not as often.
There are those who hope Harris will reconsider her stance and be more open to business development.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also actively using cryptocurrencies as a tool in his bid for power. Last year, he promised to back the U.S. dollar with some precious metals and a major cryptocurrency if he becomes president. This will probably have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies. However, the chances of him winning the election are slim, as analysts estimate.
