Pavel Durov's Arrest: What Will Happen to Telegram and TON Price
The unexpected arrest of Pavel Durov has jeopardized the further existence of Telegram and the TON ecosystem. What is the future of Durov's messenger and cryptocurrency?
Durov faces 20 years in prison
Telegram founder Pavel Durov was detained last Saturday at Paris' Le Bourget airport when he flew in for a business meeting. Local authorities had issued an arrest warrant for him as part of a preliminary investigation into the messenger's lack of proper moderation, which has led to drug trafficking, money laundering, crimes against children and Telegram's failure to cooperate with law enforcement. This makes Durov an “accomplice” in the said charges.
Durov was included on France's wanted list the day before he flew into the country. Since the Telegram founder has French citizenship, the punishment could be severe. Durov could face up to 20 years in prison.
One of the investigators told local media that Durov will definitely remain in pre-trial detention. On Sunday, a French court extended the detention of the messenger founder. The initial period of detention for questioning can last a maximum of 96 hours, according to local law. The judge then decides whether to release or charge him and then remand him in custody.
“Privacy is not a crime?” Who spoke out in support of Durov
Durov's arrest sparked criticism of the French authorities from prominent figures in the crypto industry, politicians, and general messenger users. The internet saw tens of thousands of posts with the hashtags #FreePavel and #FreeDurov from users defending Durov, who stands up for their right of free speech.
The incident with Durov's arrest raises the important question of whether the owners of major platforms should be held responsible for content. Telegram executives called it “absurd” to accuse the platform and its creator of responsibility for abusive content, emphasizing that Durov had nothing to hide. In its short message, the messenger also pointed out that the company complies with European Union laws and its moderation meets industry standards and is constantly being improved.
Elon Musk, who is also a free speech advocate, expressed support for Pavel Durov on its X and emphasized that these are dangerous times for society. In a series of separate tweets, he called for Durov's release.
The director of Rumble, Chris Pawlowski, wrote that France had crossed the line by arresting Durov.
Former 2024 U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. responded to news of Durov's arrest by emphasizing the urgent need to protect free speech.
And Edward Snowden wrote that France had stooped “to the level of taking hostages” to gain access to private communications.
Developers of Telegram games such as Notcoin and Hamser Kombat protested en masse against the arrest of their mastermind. They released game content, published critical posts, and shared animated stickers to show support for Durov.
And DWF Labs bought $500,000 worth of Toncoin to show support for Pavel Durov.
These figures are just some of the few who criticized the French authorities and came out in support of Durov.
Polymarket is against Durov's release
Users of the crypto betting platform doubt that Durov will be released anytime soon. Only 25% of votes are in favor of the messenger founder being released by the end of August. This figure is down from 50% when the French authorities decided to extend his pre-trial detention.
Possible scenarios
Telegram and Durov have often been under pressure from regulators in various countries. Durov's principled position of not sharing confidential user data did not satisfy governments. Durov's arrest could have been an attempt by the authorities to demonstrate tough action, deter criminals, and set an example for other European countries to increase pressure on Telegram to provide encrypted data.
Breaking Telegram's usual routine
It's too early to say exactly what will happen to Telegram, but a number of possible outcomes are already being put forward. For example, litigation will take center stage, affecting the messenger's operations. Its usual operations could be disrupted. Elies Campo, who led Telegram's development, business, and partnerships from 2015 to 2021, said problems could arise if Durov needed a physical presence in the company to pay ISPs.
“So what's going to happen when there needs to be some payments for infrastructure providers, or providers in terms of connectivity—and he's still under arrest?” he emphasized.
Pavel’s absence makes everything wrong
In addition, temporary management of the company may be required. However, therein lies the problem.
Anton Rosenberg, who worked with Durov for a while at VK and then at Telegram, is sure that without Durov, the messenger could have serious management problems, since Durov is actively involved in the company's development. Rosenberg described Durov as an indispensable executive, as he is the one who makes all the key decisions in the company: from funding, design, strategy to monetization and moderation.
Telegram had a backup plan
However, the same Campo said that the company has a very small staff of 60 people, so the infrastructure will not suffer. And German Klimenko, chairman of the board of the Foundation for the Development of Digital Economy in Russia, suggested that Telegram's infrastructure would not suffer because the messenger had a backup plan in place from the very beginning of its existence.
France may not be the only country to attempt to regulate the platform. All of Telegram's energies may be thrown into fighting regulatory pressure around the world. And users will increasingly express their privacy concerns. So the messenger will have to try not only to maintain the trust of its users, but also to continue to attract new ones.
What will happen to TON
Users are also concerned about the future of the cryptocurrency TON, which is closely linked to the activities of Telegram. After the news about Durov's arrest, Toncoin fell to $5.6 and consolidated at this level. Following the coin, Notcoin did the same course. The exact future of the coin and its ecosystem is difficult to determine, but there are several possible scenarios.
The inevitability of decline and the strength of the community
The ecosystem and its token may continue to experience a decline amid investor distrust. Mass selling could continue and user interest in the ecosystem could plummet. However, the metrics show otherwise. Despite the drop in TON's value, open interest in the ecosystem increased by 32%, indicating strong community support. Open interest totaled $294.14 million, the highest level since the token's launch.
Support for Durov, Telegram, and TON remains surprisingly strong. The crypto community is already betting on TON's growth.
It should not be ruled out that Durov's arrest may also be related to his crypto activities. In that case, the authorities could put pressure on the TON ecosystem. And Durov's potential imprisonment could drop the token's price to new lows. Unless TON's developers figure out how to rally the community more strongly, TON will be weakened and its price will constantly fluctuate at low levels during a prolonged legal battle.
Project autonomy
TON Community, which also backed Durov, made an important announcement, emphasizing that it remains strong and fully operational. In its announcement, TON Community recalled Durov's commitment to open decentralization. And speaking of which, TON developers can reinforce decentralization. And since the project has been in the hands of the community for some time now, the autonomy of the ecosystem may increase, which will be a positive aspect for TON's price. Durov's release could not only restore the token's price, but also steer it to new heights.
It remains unclear the future of Telegram and TON in its entirety. Still, community support and protests from politicians and other influential figures give hope for a more favorable outcome. Much now depends on how effectively the community and the TON team can adapt to the new reality, and what steps they will take to preserve the project.
