Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024. What’s Next?
Bitcoin's recent price behavior has left market participants in doubt and speculation. What is happening to the price? Has the market reached the bottom? And when will the main cryptocurrency start its rapid growth?
What's happening to the Bitcoin price right now?
Bitcoin has faced intense price pressure this week. The asset fell to a May low of $58,400 amid news of the start of payments to victims of the Mt. Gox bankruptcy. The exchange suffered a hack in 2014 that resulted in the loss of 850,000 Bitcoins. The incident led to years of litigation. It wasn't until 2021 that a plan was put in place to repay customers. This week, the exchange announced the start of the payment procedure as early as July.
The news not only became one of the reasons for the price drop, but also caused a lot of speculation about how the main cryptocurrency will behave when the payments start. Given how the price is acting now, many fear that Bitcoin will be haunted by further losses.
Nevertheless, some experts disagree with the general fears. Galaxy Research is confident that Mt. Gox will distribute fewer coins than many expect. According to analysts, this will put the least pressure on the price. In addition, most of the exchange's lenders are long-term investors, and they are unlikely to start selling off the Bitcoins they receive as soon as they get them.
Another potential reason for the price drop could be large Bitcoin sell-offs. The German government is selling more Bitcoins this week, which reinforces the existing bearish sentiment.
However, not everyone agrees with this opinion, being sure that the German government's Bitcoin sell-off does not put significant pressure on the price of the asset. The same can be attributed to the recent actions of the US government, which transferred 4,000 Bitcoins to the Coinbase Prime exchange for the purpose of selling off. CryptoQuant emphasized that the current sales by governments are just ordinary FUD and not the real reason for the BTC price drop.
Still, the rest of the crypto community saw a coordinated action by the big players. They found it odd that the German and US governments started Bitcoin sell-off procedures at the same time as with the news of Mt. Gox starting to pay out. And they wondered, if their suspicions were correct, who on the other side was buying?
The real reason for the price drop may be the actions of miners who failed to cope with the load after the halving and sold off all their Bitcoin reserves. Their actions were reinforced by speculators.
Blockchain data shows that in recent weeks, 103,000 Bitcoins have flowed into OTC wallets. This means that there are still few buyers.
Bitcoin price outlook
Bitcoin fell this week to $58,400, but then the price recovered and broke the key level at $60,000. To many, this reaction seemed bullish, which hid a trend for further growth. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes that this behavior was promising, but despite this, the market may continue the correction to $60,000-$60,500. He is sure: in order to maintain the overall uptrend, it is important that Bitcoin closes above $56,500 in June.
Source and Copyright © Michaël van de Poppe on X
The same opinion is held by experts from Material Indicators. Bitcoin is still on an uptrend despite recent losses. Experts warn, the asset must close June above $56,500 to maintain this trend. In its note, the resource emphasized that the pressure on the market this week will only intensify.
Some also emphasize the historical movement of the Bitcoin price: the dips in June are followed by strong gains in July.
However, there are also those who see the recent drop to May lows as dangerous. According to Glassnode, this drop poses the risk of a deeper correction. Analyst Willy Wu is also not convinced that Bitcoin will start a recovery.
The market's enthusiasm for Bitcoin's new and positive post-halving price gains seems to be waning. However, Bitcoin supporter and MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor in a cryptic post on X urges investors to have faith in Bitcoin.
Michaël van de Poppe and analysts at Material Indicators, as mentioned above, have indicated $56,500 as the threshold above which the Bitcoin price should close this month to begin its recovery. In other words, analysts and experts are expressing hope that the long-awaited bottom followed by a sharp rise in the Bitcoin price has already been reached.
So has the bottom been reached? To understand this, we need to look at a few key indicators. One of them is the growth in demand for the asset. The first half of 2024 saw a surge in demand for Bitcoin amid the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs. Then the enthusiasm subsided a bit. Nevertheless, demand from regular holders may indicate whether Bitcoin has bottomed out. At the beginning of the year, regular holders were buying just under 160,000 Bitcoins per month. That figure has now dropped to 72,000 Bitcoins per month. That is, a recovery in demand for the asset from regular buyers is needed for the price of the asset to start rising.
The behavior of long-term holders also plays an important role. Now there is a moderate withdrawal of coins among these holders. This only indicates that they are not ready to sell off assets en masse, thus ensuring harmonious dynamics in the market.
Profitability of traders is another significant indicator. Now the unrealized margin of traders is in the negative zone, which indicates that the selling pressure is decreasing. However, it is worth noting that this does not necessarily indicate a potential price rebound. For that to happen, it is necessary for the indicator to enter the positive zone.
The last indicator is the necessary support level for Bitcoin. It is currently at $56,000. Historically, this level has acted as support in previous cycles. A fall below this level, can only mean a further correction in Bitcoin, which the analysts at Glassnode were just warning about.
A close above this level would prove that the Bitcoin price has indeed bottomed out. Santiment emphasized the increase in social activity around the topic of the bottom. In other words, the market believes that the bottom has already been reached. However, it is worth remembering that in reality, the expectations of the community may not coincide with the dynamics in the market.
Source and Copyright © TradingView
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin started to recover over the last 24 hours and reached $61,800, making an attempt to overcome the resistance level of $62,000. However, the bulls proved weaker and the price started to decline.
The price dropped to $60,600 at the time of writing. Now the asset is trading near the resistance level of $61,500. The key resistance is located around $62,000. A move higher could send the Bitcoin price on a steady rise. In this case, Bitcoin could reach the $63,500 mark in the near term.
However, if the bulls fail to hold the key resistance, the Bitcoin price will continue to fall to the support levels of $60,000, $59,500 and $58,500 in the near term.
Conclusion
Summarizing the conclusions of experts and our arguments, the answer to the question of what will happen to the Bitcoin price in the near term remains ambiguous. On the one hand, technical indicators and the opinions of several parties at once indicate that the bottom has already been reached and the Bitcoin price will start a steady rise in July. This is provided that Bitcoin closes June not lower than $56,500. Otherwise, the market expects the correction to continue. The price behavior depends on further actions of major players and news agenda.
